Arion bank forecasts that oversea visitor numbers will slow down considerably in coming years. The bank regularly publishes an analysis of the Icelandic tourism sector and in the most recent one they estimate a 1.4% increase in visitor numbers for 2019 and a 2.4% increase in 2020.

Arion bank does not predict a surplus in hotel-rooms despite the current hotel-building spree taking place in Reykjavík, due to an amassed lack of hotel accommodation. However, the analysis argues that the government and the tourism sector need to place more focus on tourist spending in the future, rather than emphasizing on tourist numbers.